Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season indicates an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. The forecasters predict a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, with 8 to 13 of them becoming hurricanes. Among the hurricanes, 4 to 7 are expected to be major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5).
CSU Outlook
The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team predicts a total of 23 named storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Of these, eleven storms are expected to become hurricanes, with five potentially reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. CSU also forecasts that the probabilities for landfall on the entire U.S. coastline, the Gulf Coast, and the Caribbean are all higher than the historical averages.
Factors Influencing the Season
Several factors contribute to the expected above-normal activity for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. These include near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. These conditions are favorable for tropical storm formation and intensification.
With these predictions of above-normal hurricane activity for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, it is crucial for individuals and communities to be prepared and informed. By engaging in early hurricane preparation, staying updated with the latest forecasts, and following the guidance provided by local officials, we can better protect lives and property in the face of severe weather events.
Risk Mitigation Checklist
With the 2024 Hurricane Season predicted to be above-normal, it is crucial to be prepared. This checklist will help you with early preparation.
